OlLiE
Well-Known Member
Let's say a rule is, "When we turn on the fan, it blows cold air." Does logical thought mean we should expect that to always occur?" If past experiences have said sometimes the house fan did not turn on, because of a faulty wire, or that the air conditioning fan in the car by mistake blows out hot air instead on hot days, then it seems not irrational to question the stated rule. Maybe I am using bad logic. I am not sure.
In statistical analysis, 100% certain outcome is rare in real life. It also makes things unworkable to require 100% predictability. In real life, we are forced to use acceptable margins of error which change in function of the necessity of the rule. If the fan works 99% of the time, the working assumption is that it will always work until it doesn't. You can't function by continuously focusing on the 1% and assuming it could stop at any time. That would be inefficient use of your time and energy. The consequences of a fan not working are generally not that worrisome. The cost of a fan is also generally such that it is easer to buy a new one than worry about one the fact that the current one is broken. Low probability of failure, low negative consequence of failure, easily solvable at an acceptable cost of time, energy and money > 'it will always work' is acceptable operational logic to me. Well that is how my logic works anyway