New Hypothesis Posits Autism as Disorder of Prediction

[Brent]

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) neuroscientists have posed a new hypothesis for autism, suggesting that the disorder may be rooted in an impaired ability to predict events and other people’s actions.

The researchers assert that, to an autistic child, the world appears to be a “magical” and random place, rather than one of order and predictability. Therefore, symptoms such as repetitive behavior and the need for a highly structured environment may be coping strategies in an unpredictable world.

“At the moment, the treatments that have been developed are driven by the end symptoms. We’re suggesting that the deeper problem is a predictive impairment problem, so we should directly address that ability,” said lead author Dr. Pawan Sinha, an MIT professor of brain and cognitive sciences.

“I don’t know what techniques would be most effective for improving predictive skills, but it would at least argue for the target of a therapy being predictive skills rather than other manifestations of autism,” he said.

The researchers turned toward prediction skills as a possible root cause for autism based on reports from parents that their autistic children demanded a controlled, predictable environment.

“The need for sameness is one of the most uniform characteristics of autism,” said Sinha. “It’s a short step away from that description to think that the need for sameness is another way of saying that the child with autism needs a very predictable setting.”

Most people can easily estimate the probable outcomes of events, such as another person’s behavior, or the path of a flying ball. Perhaps, thought the MIT team, autistic children do not have the same computational abilities when it comes to prediction.

This hypothesized deficit could result in many of the most common autism symptoms. For example, repetitive behaviors and insistence on rigid structure have been shown to soothe anxiety produced by unpredictability, even in people without autism.

“If we were unable to habituate to stimuli, then the world would become overwhelming very quickly. It’s like you can’t escape this cacophony that’s falling on your ears or that you’re observing,” said Sinha.

Children with autism also have a difficult time understanding another person’s thoughts, feelings, and motivations — a skill known as “theory of mind.” Instead, they tend to interpret behavior based only on what is happening in that very moment.

The researchers suggest this could result from an inability to predict another person’s behavior based on past interactions.

The MIT team suggests that different children may show a variety of symptoms of autism based on the timing of the predictive impairment.

“In the millisecond range, you would expect to have more of an impairment in language,” said Sinha.

“In the tens of milliseconds range, it might be more of a motor impairment, and in the range of seconds, you would expect to see more of a social and planning impairment.”

The hypothesis also predicts that certain cognitive skills — those based more on rules than on prediction — should remain untouched, or even get better in autistic individuals. This includes skills such as math, drawing, and music, typical strengths for autistic children.

“The hypothesis is guiding us toward very concrete studies,” said Sinha. “We hope to enlist the participation of families and children touched by autism to help put the theory through its paces.”

Source: New Hypothesis Posits Autism as Disorder of Prediction | Psych Central News

 

[Ereth]

Nice find! I hope to see more research based on this hypothesis.

 

[Nadador]

What an interesting suggestion. And potentially revolutionary. I wonder what spectrum strengths might be harnessed for therapy against predictive weakness. Systems like to balance themselves from within when they can find a path for doing so. The best therapy might be found in specific activations of the very traits that come from this root.

 

[AsheSkyler]

Another topic I'm having deja vu with... Anywho, makes sense to me. I know I tend to have actively running thoughts analyzing what's happening and cross-referencing what I know so as to figure out what will most likely happen next. It's probably instinctual or a background process for most people. I'm so used to doing it, it nearly is for me too now.

 

[Etzelaire]

I agree when it says a magical world at the beggining I think. I can't accept any rule I just use them as tools but not as inmortal truths as many people do. That reminds me this one day in psychology class when the teacher said: the fact that every single day up to now gravity's been functioning doesn't mean I'm nuts for bouncing a ball every single day to be sure it's still functioning. (All the class laughed at this but I couldn't because he was making a very fair point and most of them laughed because they lacked the critical analysis to absorb the content of that 'joke'.

 

[bentHnau]

I'm not sure that this is "new." If the Theory of Mind deficit hypothesis is accurate, for example, the inevitable result is impaired social prediction. Same with the Weak Central Coherence hypothesis — if one has difficulty seeing the big picture, one will be less able than others to figure out what will come next.

Seems like this hypothesis is maybe is more about behavioral outcomes than causation.

 

[dragonwolf]

Another topic I'm having deja vu with... Anywho, makes sense to me. I know I tend to have actively running thoughts analyzing what's happening and cross-referencing what I know so as to figure out what will most likely happen next. It's probably instinctual or a background process for most people. I'm so used to doing it, it nearly is for me too now.

Probably because I posted about it two weeks ago...

Autism as a Disorder of Prediction | AspiesCentral.com

 

[grommet]

I have always had excellent skills at predicting the movement of objects. While playing Frisbee, I could judge the location the Frisbee would arrive even if it were thrown far away from me, with wind. I enjoyed the challenge of running to meet it and I almost always got it right. So that part of the article, as I understood it, would not apply to me. I like Temple Grandin's theory that autism is an atavistic thing. Hearing that made a lot of sense to me as I thought about the similarities in behavior between what I observe as autistic behaviors and that of prey animals. It's only her theory and one that seems likely to me.

 

[bentHnau]

I have always had excellent skills at predicting the movement of objects. While playing Frisbee, I could judge the location the Frisbee would arrive even if it were thrown far away from me, with wind. I enjoyed the challenge of running to meet it and I almost always got it right. So that part of the article, as I understood it, would not apply to me.

I doubt that this hypothesis applies to autistics' facility with physics.

 

[Ylva]

JER's answer: Look Me In The Eye: Is Autism a Failure of Prediction?

 

[Ereth]

I think some people commenting on that blog are taking the words "failure" or "disorder," as used here, a little too personally. But they're entitled to their opinions, so I guess I shouldn't worry about it too much.

 

[Daniel]

I doubt that this hypothesis applies to autistics' facility with physics.

Actually, that is one of the things they posit. They suggest that a common thread in difficulties in theory of mind, dynamic spatial judgment, sensory hypersensitivities, insistence on sameness, and islands of proficiency, is the impaired ability to accurately estimate the conditional probability P(B|A, Δt): the likelihood of transitioning to state B given the occurrence of state A and the elapsed temporal duration Δt.

 

[Joel's Hear]

bs

 

[Progster]

I disagree with this theory and find it very flawed. First of all, not all people with autism have such strict insistence on routine. Many get bored easily, are curious and seek new experiences. For those that do, I think that the insistence on routine is a result of overstimulation and not of not being able to predict - new experiences, for some, are very tiring because of overstimulation, too many things to aborb and process - it takes a huge effort and it is easier to stick with what you know than try something new. NTs also experience varying degrees of this, when, for example, they go to a new country, they can get very tired and want to sleep a lot. Autistics can be very adept at picking up on patterns, which actually makes prediction easier. We watch, observe, learn, pick up patterns.

If it were true that we are unable to predict or had an impairment in this area, then autistics would not be able to drive a car, become engineers, etc, but in fact, there are many autistics perfectly able to do these things.

The problem with such research and theories is that they are often conducted by people who don't have autism themselves, do not experience this, so their theories are based on the accounts of others who are on the outside looking in and don't directly experience it, such as parents of autistic children. If only they would just ask us for our input and opinion.

 

[kay]

This topic is pretty much about what I was asking about the essence of autism. And nope, as interesting an idea as difficulty predicting might be, (and perhaps there are people with that difficulty) it certainly doesn't explain most of us with an ASD diagnosis. @Progster the over-stimulation is certainly a huge part, perhaps that is the essence. I just had that experience today very clearly while at the bank and trying to fill out a deposit slip. Of course nothing explains to me why socially I can talk perfectly well to a few people and everyone else is exhausting. I do think that there is something in the millisecond, tens of a millisecond, ect.. Not in terms of prediction but in terms of processing. And perhaps different parts of a brain process at different speeds so not only sometimes is there the you vs them difference there is even internal mismatches. Perhaps that's why I run into so many things. My ASD certainly isn't just social and I have all sorts of random surprise bruises to prove it. I think I'm rambling a bit.

 

[tlc]

I disagree with the theory too. I think mainly autistics would use judgement of statistic and other methods to describe how the world works, because they pretty much have to. The world running on magic, is something I've only heard NTs say.

 

[Crossbreed]

While I will confess to poor literacy in emotions, body language & facial expressions, pattern recognition is my strong suit, almost without trying.